The Cazador Index · nº 2 · September 2026

Only 15.7% of the market has a verifiable price

Of the 300 references across 46 brands documented by Cazador, only 47 currently reach the minimum of 5 public, citable price observations (auction results with a checkable URL or archived list prices). The remaining 84.3% is bought and sold every day without a single openly verifiable price source. That opacity — not lack of demand — is what this index measures edition after edition.

What changed since the previous edition

In one month, verifiable-price coverage went from 7% to 15.7% of the catalog: from 21 to 47 references with a published range. The jump doesn't come from lowering the bar (still 5 citable observations per reference) but from reconstructing official list-price history from archive.org snapshots, matching every price to the exact reference number in the brand's own data. Previous edition: August 2026.

List prices are up 19% at the median (2023–2026)

25 references in the catalog have an official USD list price documented in both 2023 and 2026 (archive.org captures of the brands' own sites). The median increase is +19%. The extremes: Tudor 25600TN +40.1% (from $4,925 to $6,900), Omega 310.30.42.50.01.002 +25% and Omega 220.10.41.21.01.001 +24.6%; at the other end, Rolex 126622 (+7.3%) and Tudor M79830RB-0001 (+7%). There was even a real, temporary cut: IWC lowered the Big Pilot 43 on its US site in 2025 before raising it again. Every figure links to its snapshot on the reference page, in the "List price history" module.

Dispersion gives the variants away

4 of the valued references show high dispersion (the top of the range exceeds the bottom by more than 50%). That's not noise: it's special variants and provenance selling under the same reference number — a unique Tiffany-dial Nautilus 5711/1A approached $6.5 million while a regular one trades at a fraction of that, and a turquoise-dial Oyster Perpetual multiplies the price of the same watch in black. That's why Cazador publishes per-reference ranges with every lot cited, never a single number.

Where the data comes from

This edition rests on 53 auction results verified with a public URL and 249 archived list prices (Wayback Machine). Each observation is converted to EUR at the ECB historical rate on the lot's exact date. The published range is the p25–p75 interval of the observations.

The 47 references with a verified range

Reference	Verified range (EUR)	n
Breitling AB0121211B1A1	8,352–9,393	5
Cartier WSSA0018	7,253–8,756	6
Cartier WSSA0029	6,690–8,100	5
Grand Seiko SBGA211	5,129–5,242	5
IWC IW328201	4,807–5,003	5
IWC IW329301	7,603–8,289	6
IWC IW371617	8,036–8,627	5
IWC IW501001	11,285–12,187	5
Longines L2.628.4.51.6	1,703–1,767	5
Longines L3.810.4.53.6	2,061–2,195	5
Longines L3.812.4.53.6	2,903–2,922	5
Omega 130.33.39.21.02.001	6,107–6,935	5
Omega 210.30.42.20.01.001	4,970–5,284	5
Omega 210.30.42.20.03.001	4,341–5,390	9
Omega 215.30.44.21.01.001	5,941–6,335	7
Omega 220.10.41.21.01.001	5,033–5,846	8
Omega 220.10.41.21.03.001	5,189–5,783	6
Omega 310.30.42.50.01.001	6,037–6,612	5
Omega 310.30.42.50.01.002	6,056–6,841	5
Patek Philippe 5711/1A	168,180–416,000 †	5
Rolex 116400GV	6,182–11,339 †	6
Rolex 124060	7,833–8,608	6
Rolex 124270	6,673–7,037	6
Rolex 124300	7,457–30,660 †	5
Rolex 126000	5,412–5,787	7
Rolex 126234	7,977–8,231	7
Rolex 126334	11,104–13,325	5
Rolex 126500LN	13,827–14,793	5
Rolex 126506	73,638–113,198 †	6
Rolex 126610LN	9,035–11,931	5
Rolex 126610LV	10,005–10,102	5
Rolex 126622	10,984–11,378	7
Rolex 126710BLNR	12,800–17,940	5
Rolex 126710BLRO	17,920–22,354	5
Rolex 126711CHNR	14,354–15,870	6
Rolex 126719BLRO	38,747–40,669	5
Rolex 126720VTNR	16,106–19,722	5
Rolex 126900	6,927–6,993	5
Rolex 226570	8,851–9,640	6
Rolex 228238	36,837–41,519	5
Rolex 279173	9,000–10,096	5
Tudor 25600TN	3,873–4,532	5
Tudor 79030N	3,155–3,812	5
Tudor 79360N	4,954–5,155	5
Tudor M25407N-0001	4,226–4,671	5
Tudor M79830RB-0001	3,790–4,046	7
Tudor M79950-0001	2,934–3,298	5

† high dispersion — see the variants finding

Methodology and citation terms

Data snapshot as of 2026-09-13. Threshold: minimum 5 verified observations per reference; below it, Cazador publishes no range (it never estimates). Auction sources this edition: Bonhams (31) · Phillips (19) · Antiquorum (3).

This report is free to cite and partially reproduce with a link to this page. Every individual range can be verified on its reference page, which lists the observations with their sources.

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